Likely outcomes of Trump's first criminal trial:

 Likely outcomes of this first Trump trial:

1. Hung jury (jury divided on convicting; about 48% likely): Prosecutors could choose to re-try Trump, but that couldn't happen before the election.

2. Trump convicted (48% likely): Sentencing wouldn't happen for at least a couple of months, and then there will be years of appeals, during which Trump won't go to prison. So there is zero chance, even with a conviction, of Trump going to prison before the election. It seems unlikely, based on recent polling, that many Trump supporters would change their minds about voting for him, even if he is convicted.

3. Trump acquitted (very unlikely, say the experts: about 2% chance).

And it's unclear whether Trump's next criminal trial will start before the election.

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